Playing conditions additions - seam-movement & "extra-bounce", & skill-ratings

[enigma]

ICC2011 is work-in-progress right now I guess & people are asking for IPL, more domestic seasons, more associate nations & what not but I'm just going to keep it about the good old basics of the game-play which still need an overhaul in my opinion to take this excellent game to another level.

The game still doesn't talk about or take into account "seam-movement" or "extra bounce" which extremely important aspects of the sport. I know there's "cloudy" & "very cloudy" but that's a different thing, I'm talking about seam-movement off the pitch due to grass-covering, early-morning-moisture, etc. Secondly, there's the "bounce-meter" but that relates to evenness/unevenness which is different from "extra-bounce" that Aus/SA are famous for & so many teams, especially sub-continental ones struggle to come to terms with when they tour Aus/SA.

I think these factors need to be added to make the more balanced & produce more realistic results. I've talked previously about how messed up skill-ratings of players are & how some very good players are underrated & some ordinary, unknowns are overrated & I believe the effect of the environment (or the lack of it) is one of the indirect reasons for this.

I don't know how intricate this could get but I just thought of throwing it out there.

I'm going to suggest additions to current "playing conditions" modifiers ie currently, for example, spinners get a modifier ("added algorithmic advantage") which makes them more penetrative & get more wickets when there's turn on offer than on a flat pitch; same for seamers in cloudy conditions & so on.

I think there could be additional modifiers for seam-movement off the pitch, mostly for matches in Eng/NZ & "extra bounce" for Aus/SA; further, batsmen used to certain conditions should be able to "nullify" the modifiers bowlers get for various things; for example, Aus/SA batsmen should be able to nullify the bounce-modifier but the foreign players shouldn't, Sub-con players should be able to nullify the spin-modifier but foreign players shouldn't & so on. This'll make the game more realistic & create a sort of "home-advantage" for teams as it happens in real-life.

I must add though that Eng/NZ players shouldn't be able to nullify seam-movement to the same extent as Aus/SA batsmen would be able to nullify bounce or sub-con batsmen spin because generally it's easier to substantially overcome extra-bounce or spin than to overcome seam-movement because extra-bounce or spin is generally predictable while with seam-movement, although more compact technique can help, one is still playing blind just as much as the next guy & I believe this is precisely why if you compare batsmen of equal quality in real life, Eng/NZ ones would generally have lower averages than Aus or sub-con batsmen.

What would this do? Well, lot of Aus & sub-con batsmen are very overrated in the game right now & this is due to their skill-ratings being largely based on statistics rather than their actual real-life skill. With the "nullification" thing, players can be rated based largely on their real-life skill & at the same time, their statistics would still be close to their real-life statistics, for example, some of the sub-con batsmen will still be able have high averages without having to overrate them as they'll nullify the spin-modifier of the opposition bowlers, same with bounce for the Aussie batsmen some of whom are currently extremely overrated & so on.

Same with bowlers. A class-act like Vettori for example, currently has bowling-skill-rating of 813 in ICC2010 due to his ordinary-looking FC & Test averages but with newer system he could be rated at around 650-700 (which is what he deserves) & yet his averages will still be close to his real-life averages as he'll be playing most of his matches on non-spin-friendly pitches which assist seam-movement & when he plays on helpful sub-con pitches, his spin-modifiers will be blunted by sub-con batsmen which is exactly what happens in real-life.

And as I've said, this'll make way for "home-advantage" which means winning away-tours will be a real challenge as it is in real-life.

What do you guys think?

[6ry4nj]

It's very knowledgeable and well thought-out. I'm just a bit concerned that it's a lot of work for not much result.

Your Vettori example is a case in point. You're saying change him to be more penetrative on spin-friendly pitches (don't quite understand this when all spinners are anyway but I digress). Then you're saying cancel it out because his opponents are used to spin-friendly pitches.

Also, if you raise his rating and your other changes cancel each other out, that'll mean his performance (averages) will improve. That's not what you intended, is it?

I think the current one-size-fits-all rating of a wicket for seam can be assumed to take extra seam and extra bounce into account. Possibly it would be good to see wickets occasionally that got easier to bat on after a day or so - we've seen quite a bit of that recently. Then again, the preponderance of high third- and fourth-innings scores in the game suggest there might need to be a bit less of this rather than more. Apart from that, I think there's just the right level of complexity - in this particular aspect - already.

Messed up skill ratings are to a large degree (in my limited understanding) due to players who regularly play substandard opposition in matches that are counted as FC/List A. A reasonableness check in the program that generates them should do the trick (Pelser won't get rated higher than Tendulkar/Ponting or whatever) That and fixing the database promptly when the glaring howlers are pointed out.

While I'm on the subject, Cricket Coach has some values in the database set to "?". If this was used to mean "haven't a clue how good they are - they've only played (for example) one one-dayer so far", I think this is a great idea. Of course, you would then have to have code that lets the program 'discover' and update the player's ratings dynamically depending on their performances. I know (at least I think I know) it already updates them based on training and experience, so it's not that much of a stretch.

[enigma]

It's very knowledgeable and well thought-out. I'm just a bit concerned that it's a lot of work for not much result.

Thanks for the response, I'd thought it'd bounce right over most people here who mayn't be well-versed with intricacies of the game-programme.

Well, getting playing conditions & thereby player ratings right & making them more realistic is a lot of result I'd think. Player-ratings are so erroneous right now, because playing conditions are neither sufficient nor are they exactly having the proper impact, not in my opinion anyway. (it's still a great game though )

Your Vettori example is a case in point. You're saying change him to be more penetrative on spin-friendly pitches (don't quite understand this when all spinners are anyway but I digress). Then you're saying cancel it out because his opponents are used to spin-friendly pitches.

Also, if you raise his rating and your other changes cancel each other out, that'll mean his performance (averages) will improve. That's not what you intended, is it?

Currently, spinners are overperforming because of imbalanced spin-modifiers, if they're put right then spinners won't overperform but that's a whole new topic.

I'm basically saying (after spin-modifiers are fixed) Vettori should get his deserved rating but the fact that sub-con batsmen will nullify his spin-modifier will balance things out which means his averages WON'T improve.

Apart from the fact that this is how it works in real life, the point is that players should get proper ratings & it also allows for "home-advantage" which makes the game more realistic. Right now, ratings are too important, if a side has got players with better ratings in general then it'll win against a slightly lower side whether playing at home or away.

Further, not every sub-con batsman will nullify Vettori's spin-modifier to the same extent, for example, Tendulkar with his higher batting-rating will nullify more of Vettori's spin-modifier than say most of the Bangladesh guys & therefore, he'll still run through them in Bangladesh as he does in real-life (especially in Tests)

I think the current one-size-fits-all rating of a wicket for seam can be assumed to take extra seam and extra bounce into account. Possibly it would be good to see wickets occasionally that got easier to bat on after a day or so - we've seen quite a bit of that recently.

"Assumed" that's the critical word, that is just hoping rather than anything else but the fact is there's no movement-off-the-pitch-meter or extra-bounce-meter in the game. Proposed additions would make beating Aus/SA in Aus/SA a lot harder, same with Eng, NZ or whoever & currently, I don't think it matters much where you play, there's very little home-advantage except a little for sub-cons maybe, but non-sub-con pitches turn too much too often which is hardly realistic, overrated sub-con batsmen don't struggle outside as much as they should; non-sub-con batsmen don't struggle more than sub-con batsmen on sub-con pitches.

Then again, the preponderance of high third- and fourth-innings scores in the game suggest there might need to be a bit less of this rather than more.

That's a bug that is going to be fixed anyway in ICC2011, Chris has a post about it here

Apart from that, I think there's just the right level of complexity - in this particular aspect - already.

Well, complexity is there because it's not working the way it does in real life, if it did then gamers wouldn't have to know more than what they know about the real life cricket.

Messed up skill ratings are to a large degree (in my limited understanding) due to players who regularly play substandard opposition in matches that are counted as FC/List A.

That's just for SA guys, not everyone that's why I specifically haven't mentioned SA; I believe inadequate & inefficient playing conditions are the main cause for the rest.

A reasonableness check in the program that generates them should do the trick (Pelser won't get rated higher than Tendulkar/Ponting or whatever) That and fixing the database promptly when the glaring howlers are pointed out.

The issue of erroneous ratings is hardly a new one, it's been there for ages, you're free to look up older threads about this. Again, until playing conditions are brought on parity with real life, this issue will never go away & players will continue to be underrated & overrated, bringing down a few oddities (Pelser) won't fix the root cause.

While I'm on the subject, Cricket Coach has some values in the database set to "?". If this was used to mean "haven't a clue how good they are - they've only played (for example) one one-dayer so far", I think this is a great idea. Of course, you would then have to have code that lets the program 'discover' and update the player's ratings dynamically depending on their performances. I know (at least I think I know) it already updates them based on training and experience, so it's not that much of a stretch.

I've never played Cricket Coach (not more than a few minutes anyway) but if this is how some of their ratings are determined then no wonder I've read so many people talk about that game being so unstable.

Excuse me for the long post.

[enigma]

I guess you haven't been around in the last couple of days but just wanted to add that, currently, if you prepare a "Seamers Pitch" for your home matches, then you'll see a pitch with uneven bounce ("Bouce-Meter" will be 3 greens & 2 reds or thereabouts) so currently, the game's definition of a "Seamers Pitch" is an "uneven-bounce pitch" while in the real-world, as I hope you'd agree, a "Seamers Pitch" is one that has grass or some moisture to assist seam-movement/extra-bounce and/or a hard pitch assisting extra-bounce. So quite clearly, current "playing conditions" are inadequate for the game to come anywhere close to real life & to produce real-life-like results.

[GrahamB]

Currently, spinners are overperforming because of imbalanced spin-modifiers, if they're put right then spinners won't overperform but that's a whole new topic.

This has been a big problem in the international game for the past few versions. I keep hoping that it will get fixed each time a new version comes out, but I keep being left disappointed.

[enigma]

This has been a big problem in the international game for the past few versions. I keep hoping that it will get fixed each time a new version comes out, but I keep being left disappointed.

Well, there're plenty of important issues that I keep hoping will get fixed in a new version but mostly, it just doesn't happen. Hopefully, at least some of them will be fixed in ICC2011.